A Strong Alberta in a United Canada

In recent months, blue Alberta flags and calls to take part in the referendum have become increasingly visible along roads near Calgary. They are especially noticeable outside farms, workshops, and small businesses. Posters alone cannot speak for millions of people, but the mood is clear: some are tired of Ottawa, while others fear that legitimate frustration could take the province too far.

On October 19, 2026, Alberta residents will receive ten ballots. The most controversial, the tenth question, concerns not immediate separation, but the beginning of a constitutional process to prepare for a future referendum on independence. Even a “yes” vote would not create a new country overnight: it would require a clear majority, negotiations with the federal government and the provinces, and solutions to complex issues ranging from Indigenous rights to borders, pensions, currency, and public debt.

The main argument of separatists is the perceived unfairness of the Equalization system. Formally, Alberta does not write a cheque to Quebec: payments come from general federal revenues. However, Alberta residents and businesses contribute more to the federal treasury, so their frustration is understandable. The formula should indeed be reviewed, taking into account population growth, infrastructure costs, and the volatility of a resource-based economy.

But separation would create even greater risks. Alberta is landlocked and depends on pipelines running through other provinces, the Canadian domestic market, and federal institutions. Uncertainty alone could be enough to slow investment and hiring.

Those of us who came from the former Soviet Union remember very well that dismantling a shared economic system is far easier than building new connections, borders, and rules afterward — peacefully and without conflict.

Polls show that most Albertans want to remain in a united Canada. I hope they confirm this at the ballot box. Ottawa, for its part, must listen to the province and make the federation fairer.

The best outcome is not a new border, but a renewed agreement based on trust: a strong Alberta in a united and prosperous Canada.

Katerina Belinson
Expert (Ottawa)